Monday 28 September 2009

What is a player worth?

I thought I'd try to come up with a definitive guide to player prices or at least try, it's very complex but it should at least give you an idea if you being ripped off or not :)

Ok lets start with a theory.... It's safe to say that if you can get 11 World Famous players on the pitch then your going to do ok:)

Your baseline cost for a world famous is around £30k a day wage. The cheapest you could acquire one these players is Aq fee + Sign On Fee = £1m. That's rough I know but lets just use it as a baseline.

Players don't last forever and unless your talking wonderkids players seem to obtain this rep / performance from 27-28 years old. Even with players declining faster in 1.3 they still do the business until 32/33.

So say £1m minimum for five years that's £200k per season which is £7k a day. Worse case scenario is £1m for a 30yo £500k per season £14k per day.

So if we work backwards from worse case here are guideline prices for players that are world famous on wage demand:-

(Assuming retirement at 32 with no resale value these are the MOST you should pay for World Famous)
23 - 9 Seasons £3.5m
24 - 8 Seasons £3.1m
25 - 7 Seasons £2.7m
26 - 6 Seasons £2.3m
28 - 5 Seasons £1.9m
29 - 4 Seasons £1.5m

Make adjustments for wages in prices.

I guess we could take this youth prices as well (although your average FM Live manager becomes star struck by a youth with the odd good stat).

So regens lets try and apply some sense to their prices, you take your chance on if their wonderkids. Lets just remind ourselves on wonderkids... these are players that peak very early and play like men despite their age. Very often they don't actually improve so much they just play at their peak for longer, 23 and world famous is wonderkid territory.

So 16-22 is seven seasons. So the most you should pay a regen is....

£17k

Lets just do that in slow mo.... £17k * 28 * 7 = £3.3million.

That's for a wonderkid a more normal devolpment would mean the player wouldn't get to World Famous until 24/25. In this scenario that's 10 seasons.

So unless your CERTAIN of a wonderkid the max you should pay is

£1,230

Slo mo.... £1.23k x 28 x 9 = £3.1million. Dam I'm paying too much :(

I think might try to fine tune this, time to fire up excel.

1 comment:

T-Bag said...

It's all about the maths!